The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE UNITED STATES: WIDENING THE BREACH WITH EUROPE 107 ations was to finalize these regulations. 4 As this commitment was being agreed, the response of the Trump Administration was to emphasize its “balanced approach” to promote economic growth and protect the environment. This rejec- tion of Paris was combined with a refusal by all the members of the fossil four (Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, with the support of major fossil-fuel companies) to offi- cially recognize a report on the consequences of global warming. This position contradicts that of the US Environmental Production Agency, di- rected by Mark Green, which did not endorse a report linking climate change to public health. The EU has more ambitious goals beyond 2030. Following the invitation of the leaders of the Council, in November 2018 the European Commission presented a long-term strategic vi- sion for a competitive, modern, prosperous European economy that would be climate neu- tral by 2050. This discrepancy reveals not just a political commitment but underlying structural differ- ences. The US position has its roots in the objec- tive fact that the United States still has extensive coal reserves, along with gas and petroleum – some of which is obtained by fracking – while Europe has to import these fuels, primarily from Russia, and is therefore keen to identify new en- ergy sources, such as renewables. However, from a European perspective there are two is- sues to take into account. Firstly, it hardly seems reasonable that the United States, with a popu- lation only slightly more than two thirds that of Europe’s, should emit 15 per cent of total glob- al CO 2 – only exceeded by China, which ac- counts for 30 per cent, while the EU as a whole 4 UN Climate talks: EU plays instrumental role in making the Paris Agreement operational. Available at: http://europa.e u/ rapid/press-release_IP-18-6824_en.htm generates just 9 per cent. And secondly, there is also room for political choice in this area, as demonstrated by the fact that dozens of US city mayors and state governors have endorsed the agreement, with many of them also supporting Macron’s initiatives and the Katowice Summit. As the French president observed, for Europe it’s not a question of choosing between “Pittsburgh and Paris”. Outlook following the US mid-term elections Finally, it is worth considering the potential con- sequences of the results of the US mid-term elections of November 2018, which replaced a third of the Senate and the entire Chamber of Representatives, along with numerous gover- nors and mayors. In regaining control of the lower chamber, the Democrats shifted the inter- nal balance of power, and this could benefit Europe. However, major changes are unlikely, as the Republicans still control the Senate, which is decisive for foreign policy. There is no guarantee that Democrat pressure will halt the current drift or lead to the development of a more positive strategy. However, it is possible that investiga- tions into links with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia could force the administra- tion to take a clearer position on the war in Yemen or the type of relationship it wants to have with Moscow. And the new balance of power will ensure that no funds are available to build a wall on the Mexican border or to pay for overseas adventures, while half the country’s mayors and governors remain committed to the Paris Agreement and will take independent ac- tion to support it. At the same time, it seems likely that there will be a thaw in the trade dis- pute, if only to avoid fighting on too many