The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

117 2018 is the third consecutive year that the State of the European Union Report has included an analysis of the Brexit process conducted from a European perspective. 1 The assessment provid- ed in this chapter was made slightly over a month before the anticipated withdrawal date of 29 March 2019, the day on which precisely two years will have elapsed since the British government’s presentation of the notification triggering the formal start of the process. 2 1  See respectively: Guinea Llorente, M.: “Brexit: Negotiat- ing the United Kingdom’s Withdrawal from the European Union”, in: López Garrido, D. (dir.), The State of the Euro- pean Union 2017: Relaunching Europe, Madrid: Fundación Alternativas and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2017, pp. 105-114; Guinea Llorente, M.: “Spring 2018 Brexit negotia- tions: progress and future prospects”, in: López Garrido, D. (dir.), The State of the European Union 2018. The European states facing the reform of the Union, Madrid: Fundación Alternativas and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2018, pp. 55- 67. 2  he guidelines adopted by the European Council follow- ing the United Kingdom’s notification under Article 50 TEU and the European Union Withdrawal Act of 2018, both of which have legal effect, state that the withdrawal of the UK will become effective at 11pm GMT on 29 March 2019. See respectively: European Council: Guidelines following the United Kingdom’s notification under Article 50 TEU , Brus- sels, 29 April 2017, (EUCO XT 20004/17); European Union Withdrawal Act of 2018, 26th June 2018, p. 21. Only weeks before what is expected to be the definitive date of separation, this process continues to be fraught with uncertainties that make it impossible to predict the outcome. The British Parliament has rejected the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU and further definitive progress on the issue appears to be blocked. 3 Perhaps most remark- ably, the uncertainties regarding what may come next are not the result of any action or omission on the part of EU institutions but rath- er the chaotic state of British domestic politics. The political process of negotiation between the EU and the United Kingdom (UK), which has been governed by provisions contained in the Treaty on the European Union (TEU) and has oc- curred in clearly delineated stages within estab- lished time frames, concluded in late November with a formal agreement on the texts of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political 3  On 15 January 2019, the House of Commons voted over- whelming against the texts negotiated by May. See: “Brexit: Theresa May’s deal is voted down in historic Commons de- feat”, BBC news, 15 January 2019. https://www.bbc.com/ news/uk-politics-46885828 The uncertainties of Brexit: quo vadis, Britannia? Mercedes Guinea Llorente