The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 118 Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the UK and the EU beyond the UK’s exit from the Union. 4 We will analyse the characteristics and content of both separately in this chapter. The European negotiation having conclud- ed, the focus has shifted to the process of po- litical validation and ratification of the agree- ment by the UK Parliament in what can be referred to as the national phase of the with- drawal process. This stage has been plagued by serious roadblocks that have led many to fear the Withdrawal Agreement will never enter into effect and raised numerous questions regarding the future of Brexit and the relationship be- tween the UK and the EU that we will examine from the perspective of their ramifications for European integration and the functioning of the EU. We will consequently attempt, despite the obvious difficulties this supposes, to chart out the possible ways in which Brexit could unfold from this point on in the light of the current realities of UK domestic politics and scenarios possible within EU law and the political context in Europe. Before embarking upon this task, we must underscore the current volatility of the po- litical situation in the UK. Given the fact that the actors involved in, and the dynamics of, this stage of the Brexit process change from one moment to the next, it is very possible that in the time needed to publish this report new de- velopments or agreements may have signifi- cantly altered the political panorama, and, by extension, the outcome of events. 4  Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and Political Declara- tion and Political Declaration on future relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom, OJ C 66 I, 19.2.2019, p. 1. The culmination of withdrawal negotiations: a political vision Withdrawal negotiations have scrupulously fol- lowed the procedure laid out in Article 50 of the TEU, which has been fleshed out, as needed, with decisions on the part of the European Council required to fill in gaps and address am- biguities in the text of the Treaty. 5 Negotiations were bilateral, the two parties at the table being the government of the UK and the EU, which was represented by the European Commission under the continuous political supervision of the European Council and the EU Council. The rep- resentatives of the 27 remaining European States that make up the European Council ap- proved the political guidelines for negotiation that the Commission took to the bargaining table. 6 The Commission assembled a team of ex- perts and appointed Michel Barnier, a French diplomat with ample Brussels experience, who reports directly to the president of the Commission, as chief negociator. Although the European Parliament has no mandate in the 5  Regarding Article 50, See: Louis, J. V.: “Union Member- ship: Accession, Suspension and Membership Rights and Unilateral Withdrawal. Some Reflections”, in: Pernice, I., and Zemanek, Z. (eds.), The Treaty on a Constitution for Europe. Perspectives after the IGC , Baden-Baden, Nomos, 2005; Grosclaude, L.: “La clause de retrait du Traité établis- sant une Constitution pour l’Europe: réflexions sur un possible marché des dupes”, Revue trimestrielle de Droit européen , vol. 6, n.º 11, 2005, pp. 533-548; Guinea Llor- ente, M.: La Convención Europea: la génesis del Tratado de Lisboa , Madrid: Monografías del Congreso de los Diputa- dos, 2011, pp. 597-600; Hillion, C.: “Leaving the European Union, the Union way. A legal analysis of Article 50 TEU”, SIEPS, European Policy Analysis , n.º 8, 2016. 6  European Council (Art. 50): Guidelines following the Unit- ed Kingdom’s notification under Article 50 TEU , Brussels, 29 April 2017, (EUCO XT 20004/17); European Council (Art. 50): Guidelines, 15 December 2017, (EUCO XT 20011/17); European Council (Art. 50): Guidelines, Brussels, 23 March 2018, (EUCO XT 20001/18).