The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 14 Our Report on the State of the European Union of 2018 began with an introduction entitled “The Resurgence of Nationalism”. Indeed, we are seeing a nationalistic reaction caused by the sensation of impotence to adequately resolve the major problems that inevitable globalisation trig- gers. This dynamic has not varied significantly. One of the consequences is the appearance and development of populist parties that propose simplis- tic “solutions” characterised by the worst impulses of a disconcerted and insecure society: xenophobia, protectionism, authoritarianism and, par- ticularly, anti-Europeanism. The Union has to respond to this complicated situation, and it must do so with a European and consensual spirit. Yet above all it has to respond by making decisions, adopting concrete measures, some of which are long-awaited. These decisions will come after the elections to the European Parliament in May and they will depend on how citizens vote in those continental elections. The political parties have the obvious duty to explain what they are proposing to the Union in the election campaign. We in this report offer an analysis of the situation and, as in every edi- tion, we make political recommendations. Following a prologue by Foreign Affairs Minister Josep Borrell, the re- port begins with the view captured from the four countries that, in our opinion, have to step up and lead the political cycle that is to begin after the elections of 26 May, with a new Parliament, a new Commission and a new President of the European Council. Those four countries are Germany (a study carried out by Frieder Schmid and Martha Posthofen), France (Thierry Pech), Portugal (Guilherme d’Oliveira) and Spain (Carlos Carnero and Jose Candela). The possible de- parture of the United Kingdom (analysed by Mercedes Guinea) and the populist dominance in Italy mean that a coming together of Germany, France, Portugal and Spain is a feasible strategic option. Not only feasible, but desirable to extricate the Union from the logjam it is in now, with the Visegrad Group and the so-called New Hanseatic League holding up pro- gress in Europe, progress that is essential if we are to counter the United States’ policy of protectionist pretensions and China’s expansion in trade and investment. In this context, the best way of taking the next step would be via a rapprochement of those that remain loyal to Europe, forming a European nucleus of countries capable of taking action and ready to do so – a group that, at the same time, remains open to all those that wish to contribute to the task, particularly the countries that share the single currency.