The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE UNCERTAINTIES OF BREXIT: QUO VADIS, BRITANNIA? 123 scope and terms for the UK’s future relationship with the EU have been established”. 21 Article 184 of the Withdrawal Agreement articulates the commitment of both parties to negotiate an association agreement on future relations as quickly as possible once the separa- tion agreement enters into force and to conduct the procedures required for its ratification expe- ditiously in good faith with a view to ensuring that it applies, to the extent possible, as of the termination date of the transition period. The objective, therefore, is to avoid a legal vacuum or legal uncertainties, although accomplishing this goal will require much more than political will. Negotiations on trade and third-country as- sociation agreements tend to be long and com- plex, and one must also factor the trials and tribulations that any ratification process involving 27 Member States supposes into the equation. The Declaration also succinctly lays out (in some instances in very general lines) the princi- ples that will guide these negotiations, which have been based on areas in which the EU and the UK have converging interests. 22 Shared val- ues and principles such as human rights, de- mocracy, the rule of law and the non-prolifera- tion of nuclear arms form the basis of the projected future relationship between the EU and the UK. The United Kingdom has made a commitment to uphold high data protection 21  HM Government, Explainer for the Political Declara- tion setting out the framework for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, London, 25 November 2018, p. 2. https://assets.publish - ing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/759022/25_November_Explainer_ for_the_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_ for_the_future_relationship_between_the_European_Un- ion_and_the_United_Kingdom___1_.pdf 22  The positions and coinciding interests of both parties were analysed in detail in last year’s report. See: Guinea Llorente, M.: “Spring 2018 Brexit negotiations...”, op. cit. , 2018. standards and the EU has expressed a willing- ness to explore the possibility of the United Kingdom taking part in EU programmes of com- mon interest open to the participation of third countries in areas such as science and innova- tion, youth mobility, development, education and culture, and even defence. As for the economic pillar of the association agreement, the UK’s decision, after numerous vacillations, to abandon both the Single Market and the EU Customs Union rules out the appli- cation of what are common referred to as the “Norwegian” and “Turkish” models. The only option that appears to remain open is the free trade “Canadian” model with a provision for some form of political cooperation that is being referred to as “Canada-plus”. In greater detail, the Declaration envisages provisions for a free trade area for goods and “deep commitments” on services and invest- ment that go beyond WTO trade rules and new and ambitious cooperation agreements on fi- nancial services, trade and digital technology; labour mobility, air services, energy and fishing. Both parties acknowledge the need to maintain high standards in areas such as competition law, social and employment protection, climate change and taxation. Words such as “deep” and “ambitious” that indicate a political will to forge an economic agreement of a scope that goes well beyond any other the EU has negoti- ated to date 23 are notions without legal weight yet to be worked out through some kind of bar- gain that will grant the UK access to the Single 23  Chief EU negotiator Barnier notes that the EU has never before contemplated such a close relationship with a third country . Juncker, J. C., and Barnier, M.: Speech at the Ple- nary Session of the European Parliament on the occasion of the debate on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, Brussels, 30 January 2019, (SPEECH/19/789). http:// europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-19-789_en.htm