The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 124 Market in exchange of guarantees that it will uphold European standards. 24 The second pillar of future relations is secu- rity, an area that covers cooperation on both domestic and international security issues. The UK has made a commitment to continue coop- erating in matters concerning civil and criminal justice, the fight against organised crime and legal issues and to maintain a level playing field. Regarding foreign policy, a relatively simple mat- ter given the low degree of existing integration in this area, the Declaration contemplates diplo- matic consultation between the EU and the UK, the possible participation of the UK in crisis management missions, collaboration between the UK and the EU on international develop- ment projects and sanctions and the exchange of intelligence. As envisaged, the future partnership will be structured around an institutional framework similar to the governance framework negotiat- ed under the Withdrawal Agreement that serves as a channel for political dialogue, the revitalisa- tion and strengthening of mutual cooperation mechanisms and the resolution of differences that may arise. It should be remembered that the fates of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Association Agreement to follow are inextrica- bly linked and that a successful conclusion of the latter will depend greatly on whether nego- tiations on that part of the separation begin in a timely manner and in the positive circum- stances that the former has entered into force in a (reasonably) harmonious manner. Negotiations on future relations will be unique in the sense 24  One of the EU’s major preocupations regarding Brexit is the possibility that the UK might choose in the future to implement a Singapore-on-the-Thames policy by which the country would attempt to bolster its competitiveness by means of broad sector deregulation that undermined EU standards. that unlike previous EU negotiations with third countries, which have invariably focused on in- tegration, they will concentrate on limiting the negative consequences of disintegration. As European leaders have stated time and again, however successful the outcome of this opera- tion may be, it is impossible to replicate in the context of a third country association agree- ment the exchanges, interdependencies and reciprocal rights inherent to EU membership. 25 Future scenarios that can be constructed from the perspective of the political standoff in the UK five weeks prior to the established date of withdrawal By February 2019, with the effective date estab- lished for the UK’s exit from the European Union a mere forty days away, the question as to whether the Withdrawal Agreement would go into effect as originally planned or not had be- come a thoroughly intractable issue. Having submitted the Treaty to the House of Commons for debate in December and postponed a vote on the document until January, May suffered the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any prime minister in recent British history. 26 In what would be a failed attempt to break the deadlock, the House of Commons subsequently tabled and voted on a series of amendments, none of which received sufficient support to pave the 25  Barnier, M.: Speech at the Plenary Session of the Europe- an Committee of the Regions, Brussels, 6 December 2018, (SPEECH/18/6703), http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_ SPEECH-18-6703_en.htm 26  On 15 January 2019, following a five-day debate, the government submitted the Withdrawal Agreement to a vote in the House of Commons. MPs rejected the document by a large margin, voting 202 in favour and 432 against.