The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE UNCERTAINTIES OF BREXIT: QUO VADIS, BRITANNIA? 125 way for the Agreement’s approval. 27 This exer- cise made it clear that none of the options pre- sented enjoyed majority support and that MPs’ motives for rejecting the Treaty had been diverse and, in some instances, contradictory. Having decided that the backstop was the main stumbling block to approval, May has pur- sued the risky option of attempting to convince Brussels to renegotiate the mechanism. 28 Representatives of European institutions, how- ever, continue to reiterate that the text of the Agreement is no longer open to negotiation given that it faithfully reflects what May’s gov- ernment asked for and agreed to and that they would only be willing to reopen discussions on the Declaration. 29 This would provide a means of giving British sceptics further guarantees of 27  Over a series of sessions, the House of Commons voted on a range of proposed Brexit amendments. The only two to pass muster were approved on 29 January. One was the amendment ruling out a no-deal Brexit under any circum- stances proposed by Caroline Spelman, which won by 8 votes. This amendment is moot in addition to being non- binding given that a no-deal exit does not depend exclu- sively upon the political will of the British government. The second was an amendment to replace the backstop con- tained in the Treaty with a technological solution avoiding a “hard” border proposed by Tory leader Graham Brady that won by 16 votes. If, as the government claims, the backstop constitutes a motive for opposing the Treaty, it is somewhat odd that this amendment was approved by such a slim margin. The amendment is also a rehash of an idea that had been previously ruled as impracticable by negotiators after examining all possible “technological alternatives” and concluding that no technological solution capable of substituting a border currently exists. 28  House of Commons: “May returns to the Commons with Brexit update”, Parliamentary News, 12 February 2019. https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/february/ may-returns-to-the-commons-with-brexit-update/ 29  Tusk, D., and Juncker, J. C.: Joint letter of President Tusk and President Juncker to Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Brussels, 14 January 2019, (PRESS 7/19). https://www.consilium.europa.eu/es/press/press-re- leases/2019/01/14/joint-letter-of-president-tusk-and-presi- dent-juncker-to-theresa-may-prime-minister-of-the-united- kingdom/ the limitations of the backstop clause and un- derscore the EU’s commitment to enter into timely negotiations on the future relationship between the EU and the UK, the entry into force of which will eliminate the need for the back- stop as an insurance mechanism. 30 It is not clear that such a gesture would make a difference given that representatives of EU institutions have already stressed this point on various oc- casions. 31 May appears to be pursuing a strategy that focuses in large part on convincing the British public and the House of Commons that she will try to to get a bold political commitment from the European Council at its 21–22 March meet- ing barely a week before the Brexit clock runs out. One should also expect her to use the time factor to pressure Tory MPs and a good number of Labourites to back her deal. Her strongest argument will obviously be the “cliff-edge” sit- uation that dallying on the issue will lead to and the collateral damage that will occur if the House of Commons fails to approve the Treaty on a second vote and the UK crashes out the Union into an unknown world of legal uncer- tainty. This is a risky gambit given that no one is capable of predicting with any degree of accu- racy if MPs will buckle under this calculated pressure and vote yes simply to ensure an or- derly exit. With five weeks to go before 29 March – the date established by the European Council and British legislation as the official date of the UK’s departure from the European Union – there are 30  Juncker J. C., and May T. (2019), Joint Statement on be- half of President Juncker and Prime Minister May, Brussels, 20 February 2019, (STATEMENT/19/1335). http://europa. eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-19- 1335_en.htm 31  See, by way of example: European Council (Art. 50): Conclusions, Brussels, 13 December 2018, (EUCO XT 20022/18).