The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 126 four possible ways that Brexit could play out. The following are brief explication of each of these scenarios and the probability of their oc- curring. Orderly exit under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement This scenario, referred to by the media as “or- derly Brexit”, is the best of the four possibilities, as it would give public and private actors legal certainty and confidence and usher in a transi- tion period during which negotiations on asso- ciation could be conducted. Although it appears increasingly improbable, a last-minute political agreement with the EU and ratification of the Agreement by the British Parliament cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, May has few cards left to play following her attempts to put a new spin on the backstop and frighten MPs with the spectre of the abyss and there are no clear indications that either of these actions have changed the voting intentions of MPs op- posed to the deal. An “accidental” no-deal exit In contrast to the poor prospects of a timely or- derly withdrawal, this scenario is becoming in- creasingly more likely. It is now clear that should the UK leave the Union without a deal, it will not be, as it once was, the result of a govern- ment position to do so but rather May’s failure to get the Withdrawal Agreement approved be- fore the Brexit clock runs out. This possibility is frequently referred to as a “disorderly” or “cha- otic” exit as it would suppose an exit without the benefit of a legal framework for relations with the EU and Union treaties and incertainty when EU law would automatically cease to be applicable to, and be applied in, the UK as of 30 March. EU institutions, national governments and the business community have been getting ready for this eventuality for months now, draw- ing up contingency plans, hiring additional per- sonnel and in some cases adopting specific leg- islative measures. 32 The motive for this preparation was to ensure that ad hoc proce- dures and regulations in areas affected by Brexit could be readily applied and the EU legal frame- work would remain fully operational in the in- stance that the UK were to crash out of the Union without a deal. The greatest preoccupa- tion of analysts at this moment is whether prep- aration undertaken by public and private sector entities and other relevant actors has been suf- ficient to avoid disruptions should this scenario take place. Extension of the Brexit negotiating period The current political turmoil in the United Kingdom surrounding the Treaty has raised in- terest in the possibility of extending the time frame of Article 50 beyond 29 March to permit a new political dialogue or at least give May an opportunity to secure legislation required for the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement. Such an extension, which is permit- ted under Article 50 of the TEU, would have to be requested by the government of the United Kingdom and approved by all Member States. The probability of this scenario occurring has increased in the wake of statements made re- 32  Detailed information regarding EU contingency planning is available in a section of the European Commission web- site devoted specifically to that issue: https://ec.europa.eu/ info/brexit/brexit-preparedness_eno