The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 36 bring together people with very different politi- cal horizons and gives a voice to social sectors that are not normally mobilised. Nor have the protests managed to create a structure or pro- duce leaders with whom the public authorities could negotiate. Above all, in a political system entirely fo- cused on the presidential election, the President concentrates nearly all the national representa- tive legitimacy and at the same time attracts all the criticism and abuse. That means Emmanuel Macron was immediately in the firing line of the “yellow vests”, many of them directly demand- ing his resignation. In response to the rising anger, the President finally decided to make several concessions. In a televised address, he announced a series of measures costing more than €10 billion of public money including increasing the “employment bonus” for households where income is around minimum wage level, reducing social security contributions for retired people receiving pen- sions of less than €2,000, and tax exemption for overtime. The planned carbon tax increases were also put on hold. All this, of course, will not make it any easier to balance the French budget, which, as Brussels sees it, has only just been put back on track. Emmanuel Macron also decided to launch a broad consultation process (the “Great Debate”) on purchasing power, taxation, democracy and public services. At the time of writing this arti- cle, the way this will operate is still unclear. But what is certain is that it will go on until mid- March. The government will then have to an- nounce the conclusions drawn from it. In short, he risks not being able to free himself from the “yellow vests” saga before the spring. Until then, it is highly likely that the series of reforms begun or planned by the government will be shelved. In such a context it is hard to see how issues as explosive as the reform of pensions or unemployment insurance could be considered, and – still less dealt with seriously – without considerable political risk. In any case, the effect of this saga on the confidence of the French people is clear. In the January 2019 edition of the public confidence indicator published by Cevipof at Sciences Po, confidence in the institution of the presidency had dropped by ten points in one year, and con- fidence in the person of the President by 16 points! 4 Meanwhile, the government’s rating has fallen back by eight points and the Prime Minister’s by 11 points. The words those sur- veyed used to characterise their state of mind were “weariness” (32%), “gloom” (31%) and “mistrust” (29%). These results seem to indi- cate that En Marche! is no longer an exception in the French political landscape, just as France has ceased to be an exception on the interna- tional scene. Today, the President and his sup- porters embody the very political class they have so carefully distanced themselves from until now – a class strongly criticised by the French people. And, on the European and international scene, France no longer seems to be an excep- tion to the rapid and worrying rise of populism. A high-risk European election Emmanuel Macron risks going into the European election campaign in a very uncomfortable posi- tion. In fact, many voters will probably use their ballot papers to give their verdict on the policies of the government in its first two years in office, 4  Sciences Po, Opinionway: En qu(o)i les Français ont-ils confiance aujourd’hui ? , 2019. Available online at: https:// www.sciencespo.fr/cevipof/sites/sciencespo.fr.cevipof/files/ CEVIPOF_confiance_vague10-1.pdf