The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

EMMANUEL MACRON: THE END OF AN EXCEPTION 37 hardly concerning themselves with the European issues of the day. But, whether we like it or not, their decision will have direct consequences for the composition and political colour of the European Parliament, and this is where we can begin to see another difficulty for the French President. Because, as a group who have declared themselves to be “from both the left and the right”, the elected representatives from La République en Marche , will not be able to join either the ranks of the European People’s Party or the Social Democrats. And, as attempts to a progressive versus nationalist division in France and a Macron versus Orban division in Europe have not really managed to split the conserva- tive camp, they have not yet found many allies to their right. The attempt to export the strategy of bridging the left-right gap that made it pos- sible to win the presidential and legislative elec- tions in France in 2017 seems to be compro- mised. The En Marche members elected to the European Parliament in May will have to join a liberal group which could be quite diverse, but with little impact on the balance of the assem- bly, even in the hypothetical situation that they are needed to form a majority coalition. The risk is, then, that the progressive versus populist division will impose itself in France in May, but to the detriment of those who began it and to the great joy of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (formerly the Front National ), who continually pits the government parties against one another. With the current state of the polls, it is this party that will reap the benefits of the disorder and disputes generated by the “yellow vests”. Compared to them, nei- ther the Republicans (the conservative right of the government) nor the Socialist party, nor even La France Insoumise (the populist, radical, left-wing movement), are holding their own. Quite the contrary. In these conditions, the May election risks seeming like a contest between a weakened En Marche and the nationalists rein- vigorated by the recent protest movements, a contest barely disrupted by the Greens. A victory by Rassemblement National in May would therefore not be a surprise. After all, Marine Le Pen’s party won the previous European elections four years ago. Far from halting the process, France would end up mak- ing its own contribution to the nationalist and populist forces undermining the European pro- ject from the inside. Because one of the most important develop- ments by the French nationalists since May 2017 has been to shelve their plan to leave the euro, which had cost them so dearly at the elec- tions. Realising that there is no electoral scope for a Frexit proposal in France today, they have got over their radical opposition to the common currency and the European project and decided to gamble instead on an alliance with the other European populist forces, particularly Matteo Salvini in Italy. There is, of course, nothing certain about this scenario. Many events could still change the balance of the forces in play. But if it comes to pass it will confirm the end of the French excep- tion to the ideological cycle now operating in the vast majority of Western democracies.