The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 40 The outcome of the next European Parliament elections is likely to signal the loss of influence of the centre-left and -right to the benefit of the extreme ends of the political spectrum. Furthermore, the American brand of protection- ism spearheaded by President Trump is catalys- ing the loss of Atlantic influence on the interna- tional stage, especially in defence and security, the Russian Federation is asserting its regional (although not global) power, and China is grad- ually solidifying its global influence despite clear weaknesses in its monetary policy. We are now faced with a system of wildly polarised politics and a gamut of uncertainties, not forgetting the problems and tensions simmering in the Arab world. The political equilibria in Portugal Although Portugal possesses the basic prerequi- sites for political stability, this election year is sure to provide an opportunity for an intense debate on a whole host of unknowns. In this context, it is important to remember that exter- nal factors can pose risks and disruption that are not always easy to predict. There are, however, a number of questions to consider. Could the Socialist Party, under the leadership of António Costa, achieve an absolute majority, enabling him to govern without the current agreements with communists and the Left Block (Bloco de Esquerda) that have benefited him throughout the most recent parliament? How will Rui Rio’s Social Democrat Party fare with its leadership caught in the crossfire between internal opposi- tion groups? Will Pedro Santana Lopes, former prime minister and erstwhile president of the Social Democrat Party, clinch a result with his new party Alliance (Aliança) that will help him to de- velop an alternative to the current government? Will the Social Democratic Centre and Popular Party, led by Assunção Cristas, manage to strengthen its electoral position by presenting a centre-right alternative? Could the parties prop- ping up António Costa’s government – the com- munists and the Left Block – achieve a result that ensures their continued position as king- makers? These questions cannot yet be an- swered, meaning that the 2019 European and general elections will determine the road ahead for Portuguese politics. Parties and political forces Portugal has not experienced a notable emer- gence or surge of populist or xenophobic forc- es. However, it would unwise to ignore the po- rousness of the modern world which has intensified with the rise of social media and digital technology, rendering a simplistic analy- sis of the phenomenon unfeasible. Although attempts to ignite movements like the “gilets jaunes” have been unsuccessful to date, there has been a surge in strike campaigns coordi- nated within the trade union movement, indi- cating the persistence of pockets of inherited discontent with the austerity politics enacted after the 2008 financial crisis. The impact of so- cial fragmentation and the potential for pop- ulism have been lessened, however, by a num- ber of factors: the pluralism of the coalition government, Portugal’s location in Europe far from the regions most stretched by the pres- sures of migration, and the generally positive consequences of European integration and the single currency. The fact that a centre-right pres- ident, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, heads up a centre-left minority government shored up by left-wing parties also acts as a counterbalance and may also account for the lack of radical