The State of the European Union. The European Parliament faces its most important elections yet

PORTUGAL. UNCERTAINTY AND DIVERSITY 41 anti-establishment, xenophobic and nationalist political forces in Portugal. Economy In the last few years, Portugal has undergone a gradual economic recovery after a deep reces- sion. The positive effects of structural economic measures continue to be felt, especially in terms of the sustainability of public finances, the banking system, the labour market and levels of education and training. Elsewhere, political de- velopments in Angola could lead to the rekin- dling of positive economic relations and coop- eration between the two countries. Lower public debt, increased investment, heightened productivity and export growth continue to be key objectives in efforts to achieve real econom- ic, financial and social sustainability. Portuguese GDP has already surpassed the figure recorded in 2008, the year of the crash, and the 2.3% growth recorded in 2018 is predicted to even out to around 2% in 2019. Growth has been bolstered by exports and domestic demand, with the latter proving the more significant in recent years. Tourism has also played a decisive role: Portuguese hotel occupancy increased by over 40% between 2013 and 2017 and the economic impact of tourism has doubled since 2008, with 8.4% of GDP now deriving from tourism. The IMF predicts that unemployment, which stood at 7% in 2018, will fall to 6.7% in 2019. Inflation is forecasted to reach 1.3% in 2018 and 2019. As regards public accounts, the OECD anticipates that the government will meet its deficit targets this and next year (0.7% and 0.2% of GDP respectively) and has even predicted a budgetary surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2020. According to Eurostat, Portugal’s pub- lic debt stands at 124.8% of GDP – the third highest figure in the European Union after Greece and Italy. Portugal has also emerged from the crisis with a stronger economic fabric that is less dominated by the banks and con- struction and more oriented towards transac- tional goods, especially in retail and tourism. Education and professional training Education levels among the working-age popu- lation continue to provide significant cause for concern. Only 43% of the population aged 25 to 64 years old have completed secondary edu- cation, in clear contrast with the OECD average of 76%, and only 64% of the population have completed basic education (defined for this pur- pose as nine years of schooling). However, Portugal is second only to South Korea among OECD countries recording improvements in ed- ucation: although only 23% of the population aged 55 to 64 have completed secondary edu- cation, that figure is 65% among those aged 25 to 34 years old. This means that the younger generations are entering the labour market with more qualifications than their forebears – a trend that is set to continue. The better quali- fied the population, the greater the rate of eco- nomic productivity. As I wrote in a report analys- ing the profile of students in compulsory education, “learning is what makes the differ- ence between progress and stagnation. Learning to understand things, learning to do things, learning to live together and with others and simply learning how to be are all facets of edu- cation that should be viewed in the context of their different synergies and effects. To that end, lifelong learning should be placed at the heart of society through an understanding of the myriad forces that shape human develop- ment. The global and the local, the whole and