THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION REPORT. Europe in a period of transition

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 116 Secretary General promised Ukraine and Georgia they would join NATO (though without setting a date). If this ultimately occurred, it would be a very grave error as it would be perceived by Russia as a threat. Moreover, immediately after joining both countries could seek the application of Article 5 on mutual defence as they have foreign troops on their soil, which might lead to a war that nobody wants. The EU can and must engage in dialogue with Moscow on the security of the continent and even on a general framework of cooperative relations, even while maintaining for the moment the economic sanctions that are very important to Russia given its enormous trade links with the Union. One of the central points of that dialogue must be the security of the countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership: Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. And the basis of the discussion can be none other than full respect for the sovereignty of these countries, without prejudice to the idea that in any initiative taken regarding them Russia must be heard as an interested party and its points of view valued. This agreement should be framed in a broader one that re- places and improves on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement 5 , signed between the two parties in 1997 and which is obsolete.The more ties that are established with Russia, the more it will approach European standards and the harder it will find it to maintain aggressive ap- proaches to Europe.A confrontation with Russia is not in the EU’s interests. That is why putting too much pressure on Moscow is not a good idea. Nor is overindulging it. A blend of dialogue and resolve, administered from the unity of all the member states, could achieve the desired effects. NATO cannot perform this task of stabilisation and détente, firstly because some of its member states have no interest in improving relations with Russia, but also because the Alliance is seen by Moscow as hostile and aggressive.The EU can do it and that is why responsibility 5  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex- %3A21997A1128%2801%29 for forming the core of the continent’s security must fall to it, always with the support of other European countries and external allies such as the United States or Canada. However, if it is to do so, it needs to have sufficient ca- pabilities in certain spheres, particularly in defence, that it certainly does not possess yet. The development of a EuropeanUnion of Defence In this scenario, that is to say if the EU is to take charge of guaranteeing the continent’s security, it is essential to develop a sufficient, autonomous and credible common European defence to support its common foreign policy. Security and defence policy is inexorably linked to foreign policy, the two interact and feed one another.A European Union of Defence cannot exist without a common EU foreign policy to direct it, nor is a common foreign policy credible and effective without the backing of a sufficient and proportionate capacity for action in the field of secu- rity, including the military field when necessary. The EU’s capacity for external action is based on its economic power and its political and regulatory influence, employing a combination of trade, cooperation, develop- ment aid, civilian assistance, mediation, and so on. But this is not enough in the multipolar world taking shape, in which direct and indirect coercion will continue to be an instrument of international policy. It was not enough to prevent the wars in the Balkans or to halt and reverse the conflict in Ukraine. In the military aspect, inherent in the resolution of most crises, the EU as such is extraordinarily weak.The peace operations launched in the framework of the CSDP have almost always been follow-up, or training, rarely executive – and low-intensity –, and have gradu- ally lost relevance once underway, rather than gaining it. When the European countries have had to intervene militarily in their geographical surroundings for reasons of immediate security, as in Libya, Lebanon, or Syria, they have always done so outside the framework of the EU, either in ad hoc coalitions under the authority of the UN or led by the United States.