THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION REPORT. Europe in a period of transition

HOW CAN PARTICIPATION IN THE CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE OF EUROPE BE IMPROVED FOR ORGANISED CIVIL SOCIETY AND CITIZENS? 33 new political cycle that began in March 2019 following the European Parliament election results. We understand a “political cycle” to be a period of time with similar characteristics, particularly between one set of elections and the next, as a consequence of them, and also the citizens’ perception of the results, the polit- ical context where they originate, of the political process that is triggered and so, what differentiates it significantly from the previous period. In this respect, we are referring to the political process that originated from the May 2019 European Parliament election results, that are going to signifi- cantly increase democratic legitimacy, bring a certain realignment of political parties and, above all, cohesion between them. The main political forces, that make up over 60% of the electorate, clearly backed an agree- ment between them and that would be generally guid- ed in these acts by deepening the European political model. This new political cycle was also characterised by the loss of political muscle among the far-right Eu- ro-sceptic parties. Therefore, this caused a change in cycle with four clear phases: 1) the consequences of the 2019 elections on the increase of democratic legitimacy and the for- mation of the new European Commission; 2) setting up the Von der Leyen Commission with significant backing, almost 70% of the European Parliament, on 28 Novem- ber 2019; 3) how covid-19 has affected the acceleration of the institutional process (Parliament, Commission and Council); 4) the point of origin for the Recovery Plan and other measures expressing federal solidarity. The political context that facilitates the new polit- ical cycle is favoured by one internal factor - the Unit- ed Kingdom leaving the EU definitively on 31 January 2020.With the United Kingdom in the EU, it would have been impossible to approve the Recovery Plan and other measures such as calling the actual Conference on the Future of Europe. There is also an international factor – Donald Trump’s presidency in the USA, which became the external federating factor by weakening transatlantic relationships, thereby boosting the EU’s strategic autono- my. As Joe Biden takes over the presidency in the United States, the situation will progressively normalise from 2021 onwards. The response from the European Union to Covid-19 during 2020 was surprising, unexpected and a clear expression of federal solidarity. It is having a possibly decisive effect on how this term of office develops, re- garding healthcare and particularly from an economic, social and political perspective. Specifically, the four conditioning factors that are going to bring about de- velopment in 2021 and that will condition the scope of the CoFoE are: − First, the Recovery Plan and the New Generations Fund, the clearest expression of federal solidarity be- cause funds will be distributed according to needs, not based on an intergovernmental system. All three institutions adopted the clearly federal decision on EU indebtedness with backing from all 27 Member States, and the Union as a whole. − Second, we should emphasise that the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 is almost double the previous version (2014-2020), rising from less than 1% of Member States’ GDP to a little over 1.8% GDP. This means that the European Union’s budget for the next seven years (2021-2027) has almost doubled, which was completely unthinkable a year ago. It is difficult to find an institution or a country that might double its budget from one year to the next, even more so when this covers a seven-year period and is therefore not just a circumstantial increase. − Third, unitary decisions regarding purchasing and distribution of healthcare material and equipment and the vaccine application took place at the same time in all 27 Member States. The European Com- mission does not hold competences for this, but the countries granted them and will continue to do so over this year, showing that inter-institution trust has improved considerably. Thanks to this, it is possible to imagine the EU gaining control of the pandemic, if there are no more outbreaks in a little over two months during the summer.