THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION REPORT. Europe in a period of transition

81 The uneven impact of the pandemic. Prospects for a convergent and resilient recovery of the EU? Marta Galiano and Inmaculada Ordiales Introduction The crisis caused by the pandemic has had a quite dis- parate impact on the economies of the Member States from a triple viewpoint: Economic, labour, and social.And it bodes an equally asymmetric recovery that threatens to widen the economic and social breaches among the community states, inflicting a fresh setback on the pro- cess of real intracommunity convergence. The Next Generation EU plan is without doubt a his- toric milestone in the process of European construction. It is the European Union’s chief instrument for tackling the consequences of the crisis and pursues a double goal: On the one hand, secure the swift recovery of the econo- mies of the Member States and, on the other, encourage and consolidate the reforms and investments required to achieve sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth in the medium term. The challenge of the recovery is not just to get back to where we started but to place Europe in a better po- sition and do so, what’s more, “leaving no one behind”, no trivial matter given the asymmetric impact of the pan- demic and the effort of the various Member States, which has been and remains necessarily different, coupled with the loss of convergence experienced seen since the fi- nancial crisis. That is why in this recovery phase the EU must prevent a lack of synchronisation from resulting in a widening of the economic and social gaps among the community members. One might ask, then, whether the Next Generation EU plan and its materialisation in the national recovery plans will succeed in responding to the need to shore up the recovery and, in turn, bring about a structural change in the European economies that in the medium and long term improves the wellbeing of all citizens and consoli- dates social cohesion, both of which are key elements in community integration. Impact of the pandemic on intracommunity convergence While the most recent estimates regarding the EU’s eco- nomic development give cause for optimism and even reveal robust growth for the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, they also show that in spite of that, the re- covery is going to be uneven in pace and scale. An non- synchronous and asymmetric recovery that threatens to