THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Reforming Europe in a time of war

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 44 unfamiliar circumstances, averting social unrest and its exploitation by those who openly question European values to one degree or another. National politics in the EU is extraordinarily diverse, and this is surely a virtue, not a vice.Within that diversity, over the course of 2021 and 2022 the great mass of citizens continued to lend their support at the polls to the majority political alternatives on the left, right and in the centre. While it made by no means negligible gains, the far right failed to take power in France and illiberal govern- ments have gone down in number, holding their ground with renewed vigour in Hungary, but falling in Slovenia. However, the very notable exception was Italy, where a hard-right party won more votes than any other in the snap elections of 25 September, making Giorgia Meloni the president of the Council of Ministers. This brings a large measure of concern and possible instability to the whole of the EU. Concern that extends to Sweden, where despite victory for the Social Democrats the far right is now the second-largest party in parliament, proving es- sential to the forming of the conservative government and breaking the traditional “cordon sanitaire” agreed by the rest of the parties. At the same time, it is true the business of national politics in the EU is probably more complex than ever, as illustrated by the large number of coalition governments or parliamentary minorities that remain in power thanks to confidence and supply arrangements of varying de- grees of commitment. In any event, until the fall of Mario Draghi, the eu- rozone’s four biggest economies were run by pro-Euro- pean governments, firm champions of democracy and the values that make us who we are. This might appear so natural that we undervalue it, but one only needs to imagine Marine Le Pen in charge of France or see Giorgia Meloni leading Italy to grasp its importance. Reality has borne out that the EU, that is, the values, liberal democracy and social market economy it embodies, are not only the most effective tool for solving society’s problems, but also for doing so in a sustainable manner. In one way or another, with some exceptions, the elections and forming of governments we have seen in 2021 and early 2022 make it clear the mass of European citizens are of that same opinion, and they demonstrated this at the ballot box. However, if the Union, national governments and the central banks fail to find a measured response to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, one with social content, we cannot rule out that a recession induced to contain inflation will end up validating the saying about the remedy being worse than the disease and that such a shift will ultimately benefit the extremists who are not in power today, but who could succeed in taking it (or already have done, in the case of Italy). In a world where ideas appear to dissolve all too easily, we should not forget that political decisions are taken by men and women in material conditions provid- ed, created by themselves. No matter how strong the EU is, getting it wrong at a time like this could have profound consequences that end up shifting the majority political balances towards radicalised or nihilistic responses that would have a direct impact on the welfare architecture we have built with great effort and consensus over dec- ades. The political correlation of forces in the EU member states An unequivocal answer to the question which European political force is in the majority in the Union surely makes little sense, for various reasons. True, the existence of European political parties is increasingly evident, their presence illustrated above all via the respective groups in the European Parliament, yet it is also true there are clear policy differences between their national members. In addition, as we shall see below, the predominance of government coalitions of various types in most coun- tries tends to dilute the political programme of the ma- jority party in the deals struck to form and maintain them.