THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Reforming Europe in a time of war

Politics in Europe: elections, changes and trends 47 − Slovenia : elections in April 2022 and the forming of a government on 1 June comprising eco-liberals, socialists and eco-socialists. − Sweden : elections in September 2022 and the form- ing of a centre-right government in October with the parliamentary support of the far right. We would like to point out the political denomina- tions attributed to each party mentioned in the above list try to follow their alignment in the European Parliament. However, the unique characteristics of each national par- ty always make strict classification open to debate in certain cases. Conclusions: an exemplary democracy It is not for us to make recommendations in this chapter. But we certainly can draw some conclusions: 1. The European political landscape is extraordinarily varied in national terms, which responds more to the dynamics of each country than to community dynam- ics, however influential these may be. 2. Although the severe turbulence triggered by the pan- demic, the economic crisis and the war in Ukraine have yet to spark global systemic movements in the European political landscape overall, they have indeed had an influence on governments and parliaments of certain member states: Italy and Sweden, though we must underscore in both cases the rise of the far right is largely a product of domestic political factors. 3. The overall balance of political forces in general terms still gravitates around four big families: con- servatives, socialists, liberals and greens, as is the case in the European Parliament, not forgetting the significant advance of the far right in countries such as Italy, France and Sweden. 4. That means that in both the European Council and the Council of the European Union the traditional majority pro-European political affiliations (Christian Democrats, Socialists and Liberals) retain a near mo- nopoly on decision-making. Without doubt, the rise of the far right to the presidency of the Council of Ministers in Italy introduces a far from negligible new factor, the practical consequences of which we shall have to determine in the coming months. 5. The same could be said of the European Commission if we take into consideration the political inclination of its members, without forgetting the specific nature of the College of Commissioners, of course. 6. Eurosceptic and illiberal governments like those of Poland and Hungary remain in power (though clear differences have arisen between them over the war in Ukraine), without the capacity to determine the European agenda. 7. However, we must be very much aware that any ex- acerbation of the economic and social consequences of the war in Ukraine (low growth, inflation, prob- lems with supply, unemployment) could cause serious problems for the EU and for the governments of the member states, in the shape of instability. Beyond a majority unity in defence of international law and European values in the face of the Russian invasion, the extent of society’s resilience to a slowdown in the recovery, first, and a recession, after, will likely have a direct impact on governments. 8. At present, the capacity to strike agreements among the parties is a product of the parliamentary arithme- tic for forming a government in many EU countries, but it should extend to a broader consensus in the face of the challenges ahead. 9. Isolated issues aside, democracy in the EU contin- ues to set an example in terms of its functioning and effectiveness, though there is always room for improvement. 10. That democracy must be protected from any distor- tion in the rule of law in a member state of the Un- ion, not only through its constitutional checks and balances, but also from the EU institutions, as the Commission is doing in compliance with its functions, with the support of the European Parliament. All of which can be summed up in three major trends: the strength of European democracies, the in-