THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Reforming Europe in a time of war

Lessons learned from the war in Ukraine 79 open country.The result is that the war is developing into successive fights from one city to another, preceded by artillery preparations that cause enormous destruction. This Ukrainian tactic has been very useful, as we said, to slow down the Russian offensive but it would not work at all for a counter-offensive to recover lost ground, which would require direct confrontation. All wars begin - at least on one side - by using the same tactic that finished the previous war, even holding similar equipment, although this logically depends on the time that has passed between these wars. This was the case of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, that it ap- proached like its war against Germany inWorldWar Two. In this case, the circumstances are very different, and the Russian General Staff are surely learning that either they must adapt to new tactics and new weapons being used by Ukraine, or their difficulties on the ground will take a drastic turn for the worse. The second lesson for Moscow to learn would be that it might not be the best idea to dedicate most of its budget to its Navy and intercontinental missiles that are never going to be used, to the detriment of modernising the land army, when its interests are above all in its im- mediate geographic surroundings, where only land forces can claim its objectives. As for the Ukrainian government, it must see that, de- spite its superiority in many aspects, despite massive sup- port from theWest, despite its enthusiasm - conveniently stimulated by certain countries to the benefit of their own interests - and the heroics of its fighters, it has not been possible to stop the Russian offensive and over 20% of their land is currently occupied, without great prospects that the Ukrainians might recover this ground under their own steam, or that Russia might suffer economic or po- litical collapse in the short or medium term that would radically change the game. In these conditions, tackling the situation realistically, including accepting an unfair loss of territory in exchange for peace, would not be a betrayal of those who have already been sacrificed, but a relief for others whose future sacrifice would not make much sense without reasonable perspectives of victory. The Future At this point, it should be mentioned that this analysis was written in July 2022, because the situation is so uncertain and changing in the operation zone that by the time it reaches its hypothetical reader, the facts may have changed or entirely refuted the prospecting that we aim to provide here based on the current data and situation. Any prospective analysis should begin by evaluating how and when the end of the war might happen, and this is extremely difficult to predict right now. It is possible that Moscow intends to return to the negotiation table when it has managed to occupy the territory that it con- siders fair or necessary, if it manages to do that. However, it is more likely that Kiev will reject this while it believes that it can claw back this territory. Furthermore, some Western governments might be encouraging them to be- lieve that this is feasible, because it is in their interest for the war to continue, making Russia as weak as possible. Is there any chance that Ukraine might be able to turn this situation around? Let’s take a look. Until now, Ukrainian forces have above all worked on stopping Russian progress and to do that - as we said - the tac- tics that they used and the weapons they received are highly appropriate. Only in the last few days have we seen a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south, in the provinces of Jerson and Zaporiyia, partially occupied by the Russians, making the most of the arrival of the new long-range weapons that we mentioned earlier. However, to be able to launch a proper offensive, that will make it possible to recover lost ground, Ukraine would firstly require a minimum degree of air superiority, and then sufficient armoured and mechanised infantry units.To do so, it would need to receive planes and tanks fromWest- ern countries. Some Ukrainian pilots are already being trained in the USA and it has not been ruled out that this equipment will be delivered to the Ukraine in the future, although it is unclear whether this would be enough. In any case, Ukraine has something in its favour if the war goes on for longer: Russian material and its capacity to replace it are limited, above all considering the shortage