THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Reforming Europe in a time of war

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 96 32 per cent of respondents favour either increasing or complete independence from NATO. The same indiffer- ence applies to the ‘totem’ of Strategic Autonomy, the European Army. Only in France, a slight majority of 53 per cent supported the build-up of a European army, whereas in Germany, Italy or Poland these numbers range slightly above 40 per cent (Katsioulis et al 2022: 30). So, in light of electoral indifference, but despite clear substantial incentives for Europe to get its act together, the capacities of the European Union member states, that are still the founding block of any EU capacity, have more or less shrunk (Biscop 2022: 4).This was due to de- creasing defence budgets in many EU member states, not only making their ambitions towards European capacities seem vain, but also their promises towards NATO (21 EU member states were NATO members in 2021). This lack of capacities available for the EU was amplified by Brex- it. The United Kingdom was, together with France, the member state with the strongest military capabilities and experiences. Although London had been rather reluctant in pressing ahead with EU security policy, thus contribut- ing mainly to the lack of political will, it had nonetheless provided two individual Battle Groups additionally to its military and strategic expertise. To sum up, since the idea for Strategic Autonomy of the EU came about, there was a paradox development. The demand for security provided by Europe grew due to a worsened security situation in the European neigh- bourhood and an increasingly distracted or absent United States. But the supply was nowhere to be found.Whereas institutionally the EU was making considerable progress, capacities were not available, and – even more crucially – there was no political will to act. Strategic Autonomy in light of the Russian war against Ukraine The Russian War against Ukraine is a turning point in European history, or a “Zeitenwende” as the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described it just a few days after the beginning of the war in a seminal speech to the Bundestag (Scholz 2022). It bears thus also important repercussions for the Strategic Autonomy of the Europe- an Union. It changes the context in which the security policy of the EU needs to develop, the urgency of ad- dressing the issues of lacking capabilities as well as the rationale concerning partners. Some of the determining factors for strengthening European Strategic Autonomy, according to Retter et al [Rand] (2021: IV) have been considerably altered since the unprovoked Russian war against Ukraine. On the political level the war brings first the threat perceptions of EU member states closer together. With Russia being an aggressor and violating international law in a blatant way, the previously rather diverse threat perceptions, especially between the Eastern and West- ern members of the Union (Katsioulis 2022: 22), will converge considerably. Thus, one of the major factors influencing the development of Strategic Autonomy will be more favourable for progress. This could be already be observed, when the question of sanctions against Russia was put on the table. Never before, could the EU decide in such a swiftly manner about a sanctions regime, that will have considerable effects not only on Russia, but also European societies at large. But the common conviction, that there needs to be a clear sig- nal towards Moscow prevailed and helped overcome political differences. Secondly, the perennial apple of discord, meaning the competition between EU and NATO, can be set aside, at least for the medium-term. This discord has for many years stood in the way of po- litical unity inside the EU and thus prevented progress in decision-making as well as capacity-building (Ondarza/ Overhaus 2022: 5). The war has in some way revitalised the Atlantic Alliance and made clear, that it serves a specific and very necessary purpose in Europe: territorial defence still relies on NATO and thus the support of the United States. There is a third political change, the war has brought about. Both, EU and NATO have been strengthened con- siderably.The Danish population voted in a credendum to