THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Reforming Europe in a time of war

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 98 enhanced role of the European Commission in defence, there is a chance for consolidating and integration Eu- ropean defence in the coming years (Puglierin 2022: 5) The German government has already pledged to use the additional spending to enhance the European dimen- sion.This has been clear from the very inception, with the chancellor outlining in his initial speech, that the funds would be used not only to buy American weapon systems like the F-35, but also the Future Combat Air System, a European platform. This has been underlined further in the following months (BMVG 2022) and could be the seed for making the EU capable of acting autonomously in the future. Apart from the changes on the political, institution- al and capabilities level, the war has helped clarifying the aspirations of European Strategic Autonomy. It has become clear, that the more ambitious level of reaching independence in security and defence is currently not achievable, nor does any member state aim in this direc- tion anymore. The Russian aggression has introduced a healthy dose of pragmatism into the European debate and thus helps focus the efforts towards realistic and necessary aims. The debate on EU and/or NATO, that has been conducted in a sometimes ideological fashion, is over. The real question seems to be rather: how much Europe in NATO. This takes into account the necessary strengthening of European capabilities, as well as the pivot towards the Pacific, that is happening in the Unit- ed States, despite the current war in Europe. However, there are still a number of synergies between NATO and EU, that have not been used sufficiently. The new Stra- tegic Compass of the EU, that was revised in light of the Russian aggression, is showing this as a direction for a European Union, that is more flexible, effective and nimble (Puglierin 2022: 4) Concluding, it becomes clear, that the Russian war against Ukraine has not only shattered fundamental se- curity assumptions in Europe, but also challenged the European Union to sharpen and deliver on its ambitions towards Strategic Autonomy. Before 2022 the security ambitions of the EU had been consisting of a highly am- bitious institutional set-up, that was lacking political will and especially the means to act on the aspirations. The current decisions by a number of European governments will allow for a closing of many of the capability gaps in the coming years. The way, in which these investments will be implemented, will be the first litmus test of Eu- rope’s ability to get its act together. Should the chance be seized and the EU help its member states in integrating their militaries better, the Union will be in a far better position to act in security policy. And action will be re- quired in two directions. First, the necessity to shoulder a heavier burden insider NATO will put the European pillar to the next test. Nobody expects Europeans to replace the United States fully, especially their nuclear umbrella over the Alliance, but in the realm of conventional forces, Washington will expect a bigger European footprint.That goes for the current administration and even more for so, if there would be a change in government after the next presidential elections in 2024. Second, Europe will be needing to deal with crisis management in its neighbour- hood for the foreseeable future without much support of the US.Although the current war overshadows this issue, the many hotspots surrounding the European Union need attention and possibly even stabilisation. A European Union, that is capable of fulfilling these ambitions would finally put flesh to the bones of the promise of Strategic Autonomy, that is now nearing 25 years of age. Since then, the world has changed fun- damentally and with it the meaning of this sometimes blurry, sometimes politically contested concept. But what hasn’t changed is the need of the European Union to supplement its economic weight with an accordingly heavy footprint in security policy. The Russian war has just been the latest reminder, that the much-quoted mis- match between the economic giant and military dwarf, who is by the way constantly distracted by internal in- fighting, is still reality and needs fixing. Because, if the EU cannot achieve the ability to act in an increasingly chaotic and confrontational environment, it risks becoming the playfield for other actors – that would be the opposite of Strategic Autonomy.