THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 14 Gradually, that period of international association began to be replaced by another marked by confronta- tion once more. Like so often in history, it is impossible to put a precise date on the start of the new era or a finger on one single cause. It is what we call today “new geopolitics”. We have moved from an uneasy calm to practically outright confrontation between international powers, which strive to have their own global and regional way. The greatest source of friction is the war in Ukraine, triggered by the Russian Federation’s invasion of the country in flagrant violation of international law. Yet there are many more, like the one pitting the United States against China. Moreover, the conflict in the Middle East has wors- ened with extraordinary gravity, with a terrible toll of civilian casualties and the generation of an enormous potential for regional and global instability. Looking beyond specific conflicts, the future correla- tion of forces on an international level, both politically and economically, is currently in play. Such is the degree of tension that the threat of resorting to nuclear weap- ons is making a comeback. The world today is mired in uncertainty after endur- ing the terrible COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis. Democracy and authoritarianism, respect for or vio- lation of international law, the desire or lack of to live in a rules-based world stand face to face. But political hegemony, economic preeminence or territorial domina- tion are also in dispute. The United States is clear about its blueprint, at least during Joe Biden’s presidency. Its foreign policy is straightforward again, with the goal of fully restoring the country’s role of global leadership. The firm response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing confron- tation with China leave no room for doubt. Standing opposite is the Russian Federation, inca- pable of matching Washington in a trial of strength, clinging to its status as a nuclear power as a final hand- hold—it is no longer a power in any other sense—and facing likely political instability following its disastrous military intervention in Ukraine. China, for its part, remains committed to continuing its economic growth -for which it needs international political tranquility and continuity in globalisation-, that is the essential basis of its aspiration to be a power based on soft power as well as hard power. The Global South (with Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa leading the way) is openly re- sistant to a dynamic of international confrontation. That will not solve its problems, on the contrary, and there is no desire to speak up for any of the powers in the fray. Its voice goes unheard on so many other issues after all. In the new geopolitics, the European Union must assert itself and act as a major global civil power. It must be capable of defining its interests and choosing the policies and allies to pursue them, on the basis of its own foreign policy identity. This is written clearly in black and white in its Treaty. The Union is not, nor has it ever wanted to be, a traditional power, sustained by military might. Hence the term “civil” to define itself as a major global power (which does not preclude it from having military means as a necessary tool). On the contrary, it has always based its global authority on being a beacon of freedom, pros- perity and solidarity; a champion of international law; contributing to the peaceful and negotiated resolution of conflicts, preventing them and building and keeping the peace; promoting international trade; combating cli- mate change; fostering sustainable development; head- ing cooperation and fighting poverty. That is why it is necessary to be able to base and argue the EU’s action on the global stage - from the war in Ukraine to the conflict in the Middle East, through the rest of the present or future challenges - on the Euro- pean identity and on the communitarian trajectory. European identity The Lisbon Treaty literally inherited from the European Constitution drafted by the Convention (2023 marks the 20th anniversary of its conclusion) a precise definition of the EU’s identity, expressed in values, principles and goals, particularly where its international relations are concerned. The Union, reads the Treaty, is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy,