THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

PERSPECTIVES FOR FUTURE ENLARGEMENTS OF THE UNION 31 according to a survey by the Open Society Foundation. This leads to a situation where 80% of the population is against applying sanctions against Russia because of the war, 82% is against Serbia joining the Atlantic Alli- ance and over 50% does not want to join the European Union. When the more political chapters are opened, these perceptions will come to light, and it will be the Member States who eventually have to decide whether they might accept a country that has refused to sanc- tion Russia, although it did condemn the violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Anyway, the main obstacles for Serbia’s accession are issues with its neighbours, Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo, where Serb minorities live, and recog- nition of the latter’s independence, plus the normalisa- tion of relations between them. The Serbs in BiH make up slightly more than 30% of the population and they constitute the Republika Srpska (RSK), one of the two entities making up this State. The other entity – Federa- tion of Bosnia-Herzegovina – has accused the RSK of institutional disloyalty and increasing separation from the common state to get closer to Serbia. Although Bel- grade has reiterated that it respects the sovereignty and unity of BiH, it is true that the RSK signed a “special ties”agreement with Serbia in September 2006, to pro- mote institutional and economic cooperation between them, and many political leaders, including the Repub- lic’s current president Milorad Dodik, have expressed their wish to proclaim independence and join Serbia. That would cause a political earthquake which would prevent Serbia entering the EU. In Kosovo, the Serb minority – 6% of its popula- tion – is mainly grouped in the North Kosovo region, separated from the rest of the country by the Ibar River that divided the city of Mitrovica. They do not recognise the independence of Kosovo, neither its constitution nor its institutions and they cause frequent conflict with the Kosovar authorities. The latest skirmish in May also caused conflict with KFOR, a multinational military force led by NATO which is on a peacekeeping mission in the country. They were governed by their own Assembly, until the governments of Serbia and Kosovo signed an initial agreement to normalise their relations, in Brus- sels in April 2013. In this agreement, Serbia withdrew its support for the Assembly and both parties agreed to set up a Community of Serb Municipalities, which failed as Pristina blocked it. Many Serb leaders, including the president, have come out in favour of the Serb com- munity separating from Kosovo. A land exchange was even suggested, where North Kosovo would join Serbia in exchange for the Presevo valley, currently in Serbia, although inhabited by Albanians. However, other coun- tries fear that this exchange might open up a Pandora’s box concerning territorial and ethnic claims in the re- gion. This is just one of the contentious aspects between Kosovo and Serbia, which refuses to recognise the sov- ereignty of its former province. Normalisation of rela- tions between the countries has been raised by the EU as an essential point to accept Serbia’s entry into the Union. France and Germany presented a plan in 2022 that Brussels considers to be realistic. It has already been accepted by Kosovo, but not by Serbia. If this nor- malisation came about, it would clear the way for Serbia to join the EU and with it, probably, definitive pacifica- tion of the unstable Western Balkan region. Albania Albania requested to join the EU in April 2009, and it was granted candidate status by the European Coun- cil in June 2014. The Council approved the negotia- tion calendar in June 2018, highlighting the need for continuous progress in areas such as judicial reform and fighting corruption and organised crime. The Euro- pean Council agreed to open the negotiation process in March 2020. The first accession conference was held in July 2022. To date, three negotiation chapters have been negotiated. Albania does not hold any particularly contentious issues with its neighbours, and it only has to improve transparency and control of its administration and strengthen its Rule of Law to complete the process. Bosnia-Herzegovina Bosnia-Herzegovina asked to join the EU in February 2016. In December 2022, it was awarded candidate status, on the condition that it would implement the