THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

PERSPECTIVES FOR FUTURE ENLARGEMENTS OF THE UNION 33 months passed between these two events. This does not exempt Ukraine from the negotiation process for all 35 chapters as for all other candidates, and this process is yet to begin. Some Member States are advocating swift action, while others maintain the accession process should be as complete and rigorous as in other cases. Ukraine’s candidacy also led to an application from Moldova, which requested membership of the EU on 3 rd March 2022 and was awarded candidate status in the same European Council meeting as Ukraine, on 23 rd June. Likewise, the decision regarding the next steps is conditioned by meeting measures recommended by the Commission’s ruling, which are similar to Ukraine, although also requesting reform of the administration, improving control of public finances and reinforcing re- spect for human rights. In the same meeting, the European Council studied the possibility of Georgia joining the Union, presenting this request at the same time as Moldova. However, in this case, the internal political situation is so unstable and polarised that the European Council was only pre- pared to give it candidate status if it met the priorities highlighted by the Commission in its ruling that, in ad- dition to recommendations similar to Ukraine and Mol- dova, requires guarantees that all institutions will be run with transparency and accountability, improving the electoral procedures, and strengthening gender equality and the fight against gender violence. These two candidates and the pre-candidate have a prior relationship with the EU through the Association Agreement, signed within the framework of the Eastern Partnership, of which all three are members, alongside Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus (suspended). Geor- gia and Moldova signed the agreements in 2016 and Ukraine in 2017. Although they are not related to the membership process, the progress that has been made and that is still to be made in developing these agree- ments will doubtlessly ease the negotiation and the chances of reaching full integration. These three countries have a lot in common, as well as the similar political and legal deficiencies mentioned by the Commission. All three were part of the Soviet Union, and all three have Russian or Russophile minori- ties, that have declared their region independent, leav- ing them de facto outside the control of their respective governments: in Georgia, since its independence, South- ern Ossetia and Abkhazia; in Moldova, Transnistria, also since its independence; and in Ukraine, Donbas – the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lu- hansk – since 2014. Russia intervened in Georgia in 2008, to stop Tbilisi taking control of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia by force, and Moscow recognised them as independent. In 2014, it slyly intervened in Ukraine to support the separatists who rebelled as a result of the Maidan revolution, in Donbas and in Crimea, annexing the latter. Later, in February 2022, it invaded Ukraine with the excuse of defending the separatists and pre- venting Ukraine from joining NATO, provoking a cruel, illegal and unfair war that is still raging. For the time being, only Moldova has been saved because since July 1992 it has never attacked Transnistria, where the Rus- sian military forces are based – theoretically on a peace mission, although it is under pressure from Russia, par- ticularly in terms of energy supplies. Russia’s interests in these countries are mainly re- lated to security and protection of Russian or Russophile minorities. It radically opposes them becoming members of NATO, although it has few arguments against joining the EU, even for internal consumption, and its opposi- tion is weaker, plus it does not seem to have enough force to impose this stance should it wish to exert it. However, this aspect must also be considered, and it is wise to remain extremely prudent because if States enter the EU that do not have sovereignty over their whole territory, plus latent conflicts which could be re- kindled at any time, this might destabilise the European integration process and become a serious problem for all Member States. Although there is the precedent of Cyprus, whose territorial problem remains unresolved despite belonging to the EU, this is controlled due to Türkiye’s candidacy status. On the other hand, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have very serious political, social and legal issues, high- lighted by the Commission, that have not prevented the former two from achieving candidate status in record time, although it would probably have been delayed in other circumstances. The decisions to award this status are understandable – particularly in the case of Ukraine – as an act of European solidarity in the light of Rus- sia’s attack. However, that cannot force the European