THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

67 Introduction The 2022 report mentioned that the COFOE was not effective due to its composition and methods. However, President Macron used this line to propose that when the COFOE conclusions were presented in the European Parliament plenary session on 9th May, the European project should be enlarged to the confederal field. In ad- dition, he committed to supporting the European Parlia- ment proposal from 4th May which asked the European Council to convene the Convention by applying Article 48 to revise the Treaties. However, the European Coun- cil of 23rd and 24th June during the French Presidency came as a slap in the face, as not only did it not con- vene the European Convention, but it decided to award candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, al- though the latter came with conditions. This only made a revision of the Treaties even more necessary. Ever since, in late 2022 and up to the time of writing in September 2023, progress has been made simultane- ously along both channels: confederal and federal. The confederal initiative has been particularly developed, mainly by implementing the European Political Commu- nity, which met for the first time on 2nd October 2022 in Prague. On the other hand, the federal perspective has clearly been expressed in the Constitutional Committee ruling approved on 28th August and signed by the lead- ers of the five main political parties, which raised the need for a Convention to tackle the revision of the Trea- ties in a clearly federal tone. This refers to reforming the institutions and considerably enlarging competences. There can be no doubt that its competences are fed- eral as, if there had been any doubt, the second consid- eration is “bearing in mind the Ventotene Manifesto of June 1941”, which is clearly federalist. This war of aggression has been raging for over 550 days and yet, as opposed to initial predictions, Russia has yet to meet its objectives. The invasion was expected to be fast, lasting barely a month, after which Russia would occupy 70% of Ukrainian territory. Russia is cur- rently in the process of a gradual withdrawal and barely holds 10% of the country. On the other hand, Borrell reminds us in his book The Year that the War Returned to Europe that the aim of the aggression was not only to annex Ukraine, but also to divide and weaken the Eu- ropean Union. The aggression has clearly neither weak- ened the Union nor divided its Member States, rather more it has produced the opposite effect and acceler- ated confederal aspects by developing and deepening the federal rationale. 2022-2023: Confederal progress compatible with federal deepening Francisco Aldecoa Luzárraga