THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

Introduction The challenges facing Europe The year 2023 has provided further proof of the importance of European unity. Even after – especially after – the attack on Ukraine in violation of international law, the European Union (EU) offers the most robust response to the current threats and, more than ever, the common promise of a brighter future in the 21st century. Against a multipolar international backdrop, one of growing rivalry among powers, tackling multiple crises like war, climate change, social inequality and the rise of populism poses the biggest challenge to have faced the EU since its inception. The European people will go to the polls in May 2024 to determine the composition of the European Parlia- ment. In doing so, they will be deciding on the EU’s political priorities and its capacity for action. A lot is at stake. For the twelfth time, experts in European politics devote this report to the various European political projects currently on the table. All the papers were written between spring and summer 2023. At the time of the report’s publication, the Spanish Presi- dency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2023 was still in progress; it was therefore too early to register its results. No matter how we look at it, there is no denying that the EU cemented a turna- round in 2023. European defence, reliant on the United States until now, has acquired a prominence that had been practically non-existent since the implosion of the Soviet Union. The end of cheap Russian gas has sent energy prices rocketing. EU enlargement to the Western Balkans is getting off the ground, and it includes Ukraine. That same philosophy underpins the idea of a European Political Community comprising 44 coun- tries, i.e., the EU and its neighbours. In short, we can say we are without doubt at what the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, dubbed Zeitenwende , a turning point in history. Indeed, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, has continued to influence EU strategy in 2023, practically the fi- nal year of the current European legislative term. Naturally, it is shaping the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the European Union, which began with a major summit in Brussels on 17 and 18 July 2023 between the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). This report, then, is a study of the challenges facing Europe at this critical juncture, at a time when we can no longer always assume the United States will provide a securi- ty guarantee. One first move has been Finland and Sweden using the NATO option. But beyond that it has also fallen to the Union to respond to the threat posed by such an unexpected and brutal assault, one so contrary to a rules-based international order, as the attack unleashed by Vladimir Putin. The policy and strategy the Union has adopted