THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Towards a new legislative term

The EU has proven incapable of creating a legal framework that enables lawful mi- gration in that direction and which allows real application of the international conven- tion on refugees. The Mediterranean countries are bearing more than their fair share of the burden here compared with those of northern and eastern Europe, which are taking a tough stance, an approach that is set to become even more hard-line, given the rise of far-right parties and their entry into European governments. EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, spurred by the situation in Ukraine, and with Moldova in mind too, is another issue under debate during the Spanish presidency. The decision on enlargement will have a clear impact on the institutions. A Union of 33 or more would be unworkable if unanimity voting were maintained on such strategic issues as foreign, security and defence policy, and tax harmonisation. One example of such an institutional dilemma is the differing positions we find among the 27 member states regarding China, and even towards the United States and the Union’s autonomy. There are currently four candidate countries from the region – Albania, Montene- gro, North Macedonia and Serbia – and another two potential candidates: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The first three back Ukraine joining the EU. It is no coincidence that all three of them belong to NATO. Resuming the process of EU enlargement, then, sends out a signal to Russia and China. The integration of the Western Balkans into the Union, with the political, economic and social development it could entail, is something that Russia and China are not in a position to offer the Balkan people. The battle against climate change is without doubt one of the greatest challenges facing the EU. The deep interconnectedness of the political reforms required to address climate change and its consequences only increases the magnitude of the challenge. It is not a matter of making a few odd adjustments: energy and climate policy are closely linked to European industrial and economic policy, and even to the very future of European businesses. It may be that this link between energy, climate, industry and economics is more visible; but security policy, trade policy, development policy, and fiscal and tax policy are bound to energy and climate policy too. Europe needs a new, global approach to generalise climate transformation. There are other challenges. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center, the biggest threats people perceive on a supranational level are cyberattacks and disinfor- mation. These concerns must be taken seriously. It is essential to continue safeguarding the security and rights of European citizens. And the EU must also continue to develop as a democracy. European society has a major opportunity to determine the course of the EU with its vote in June 2024. In the face of this kind of diversified globalisation, what might be described as a “new consensus” has been marked as essential. The EU, and the option of “de-risking” rather than “decoupling”, particularly regarding China and the strategic Indo-Pacific area, has a key role to play. INTRODUCTION