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THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE: THE END OF AN ERA
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of European integration were aptly titled “Those
who want more do more” (scenario 3) and
“Doing much more together” (scenario 5). One
unexpected consequence of the shift in US stra-
tegic policy and Great Britain’s decision to leave
the Union has been Germany’s willingness to
rethink economic policy, provide momentum for
European integration in the areas of security
and defence and frame its political discourse in
terms of European values and rights. Current
circumstances position Germany to assume a
greater leadership role in EU foreign policy.
Conclusion: the end of an era
Although the United States and the European
Union together constitute one of the most inte-
grated and interdependent blocks on the plan-
et, the future of transatlantic relations is mired
in uncertainty. Under the Trump administration,
the substance and tenor of a once firm partner-
ship has begun to change, with an American
government on one side of the Atlantic that
does not believe in the EU project and a EU riven
with internal divisions that has yet to fully be-
lieve in itself on the other. We have reached the
point at which the framework that has sus-
tained relations between the US and the Europe
throughout the seven decades following the
end of the Second War is beginning to show
signs of wear. US strategic interest in Europe has
waned with the recent political turnover in
Washington and fissures within the EU threaten
to aggravate global instability. Although eco-
nomic, political and social ties between the US
and Europe remain strong, many of the princi-
ples and perspectives that have long under-
pinned their relations – free trade, a common
respect for rights and freedoms, the function of
NATO as the pillar of North American security
and the privileged position of Europe within the
wider constellation of US allies – may be set to
change. For an unknown period of time moving
forward, we must take into account the fact
that regardless of what specific policies the US
may pursue, Donald Trump can be expected to
frequently act as a sixth columnist for populist,
xenophobic forces in Europe.
From a European viewpoint, one of the more
negative aspects of the new US foreign policy
now being articulated is its shift from the multi-
lateralism embraced by the Obama administra-
tion to a more bilateral approach. This 180-de-
gree turn constitutes a frontal blow to EU High
Representative Mogherini’s global security strat-
egy, which, in contrast, focuses on multilateral
accords such as the Paris Agreement on climate
change and the Iran nuclear deal and calls upon
the UN to play a pivotal role. In short, the thrust
of the new approach to US foreign policy not
only challenges the role of Europe in future
global affairs but also signals the possibility of
disagreements between the two blocks on is-
sues of great importance to both such as trade,
monetary policy and the resolution of the cur-
rent situation in Ukraine.
The complicated political campaigns taking
place throughout Europe during 2017 suppose
a short-term period of instability that will un-
doubtedly put the European project to the test.
However, one cannot rule out the possibility
that the Trump administration might succeed in
furthering dialogue with Russia and China on a
range of issues that have remain deadlocked to
date. The US could declare that it has no inten-
tions to engage in further imperialist conflicts,
establish a closer working relationship with
Russia that includes joint efforts to achieve
peace in hot spots throughout the world such
as Syria and Ukraine and negotiate new wide-
ranging trade agreements (once the TPP and