The State of the European Union 2017

BREXIT: NEGOTIATING THE UNITED KINGDOM’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION

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a third party. This second agreement also raises

the problem that, as a combined agreement, it

must be approved unanimously and ratified by

all the member states before it comes into force.

The players prepare for the “game”:

anticipating the negotiations

At the start of 2017, there is considerable un-

certainty as to what the future holds for the EU

and the UK. How will the current process pro-

ceed? How long will it last? And, most impor-

tantly of all, what shape will the final outcome

take in terms of the relationship between the

EU and the UK? In this regard – and despite the

inflammatory speeches of some of the most

hard-line brexiteers – it seems likely that, even

after withdrawal, the UK will retain close ties to

the EU through some kind of formula designed

to provide for the differentiated integration of a

non-member state.

However, it is difficult if not

impossible to anticipate what the final content

of any such negotiated agreement might be.

Politics is an unpredictable business at the

best of times, and all the more so given the

volatility and political and social fragmentation

that characterise the current UK situation.

Although, at the time of writing, article 50 had

yet to be triggered and the British government

continued to strike a belligerent public attitude

and to talk of a clean break, we should not ig-

nore the possibility that, as the political process

develops and tempers cool, traditional British

pragmatism will prevail and lead to a civilised

separation process based on a calm assessment

of the UK’s national interests.

Aldecoa, F: “El referéndum británico: una posible opor-

tunidad para el proyecto europeo”,

Revista Aranzadi Unión

Europea,

no. 11, 2016, pp. 33-44.

The negotiations will be conducted between

the EU-27 and the UK. During autumn 2016

and the opening weeks of 2017, the two parties

have focused on preparing their respective ne-

gotiating structures and setting out the posi-

tions they will be defending, even if almost no

details of these positions have been made pub-

lic. Although a constitutional process such as

this must be the subject of clear communication

and public information in order to ensure demo-

cratic legitimacy, the negotiation process itself

must inevitably be conducted with a significant

degree of discretion.

Prime Minister Theresa May: sailing

through stormy waters

In the wake of the political crisis following the

referendum result, Theresa May was appointed

Prime Minister on 13 July 2016. In her first

speech, she made it clear that her government’s

main focus would be on the process of with-

drawing from the EU, with the slogan “Brexit is

Brexit”.

The referendum also sparked an un-

successful challenge to Jeremy Corbyn’s leader-

ship of the Labour Party, while UKIP held two

leadership elections before settling on Paul

Nuttall. In addition, the result has opened up

the possibility of a renewed territorial crisis.

Early elections held in Northern Ireland after the

collapse of the power-sharing government

This is the majority position in both houses of the UK

parliament, whose members have sought a level of involve-

ment in the negotiations that falls short of the kind of mi-

cromanagement that could prejudice the outcome. Europe-

an Union Committee - House of Lords:

Brexit: parliamentary

scrutiny.

4th Report of Session 2016-10,

20 October 2016,

(HL Paper 50).

May, T.:

First Statement as Prime Minister in Downing

Street,

London, 13 July 2016.