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THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
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tract voters. Reality curiously contradicts the
panic scenarios of Muslim migration they are
hawking to their citizens. A recent study con-
ducted by Pew Research indicates that 25.8 mil-
lion Muslims currently reside in Europe, a figure
that translates into 4.9 % of the overall popula-
tion. An examination of variation within the
Union reveals that Muslims account for 8.8 %
of the population in France, 8.1 % in Sweden
and 6.1 % in Germany – sharp contrast to demo-
graphic realities in Visegrad countries, in which
they make up a mere 0.1 % of the population of
Poland, 0.4 % of the population of Hungary,
0.2 % of the population of the Czech Republic
and 0.1 % of the population of Slovakia.
According to the most probable scenario present-
ed in this study, Europe’s Muslim population is
projected to reach 58 million (11.2 %) by 2050.
Should Europe continue to absorb sustained
flows of migrants at 2016 levels, the projection
rises to 75 million or 14 %by the same date. Even
in the context of this least likely scenario, in which
Muslims would represent 20 % or more of the
populations of countries such as Germany, France
and Sweden by 2050 should extraordinarily high
levels of migration continue unabated, the same
group would only constitute 0.2 % of the popu-
lation in Poland, 0.7 % in Slovakia, 1.2 % in the
Czech Republic and 4.5 % in Hungary.
The integration of Muslim communities into
the fabric of European societies is a serious issue
that must be addressed at the political, econom-
ic, social and cultural level in order to avoid divi-
sions that could be very difficult to manage far-
ther down the line. However, as we have had
ample opportunity to observe, the partisan ma-
nipulation of the problem can end up having a
far more negative impact than the problem itself.
The truth be told, the most serious problem in
countries throughout this region is the authori-
tarian and anti-liberal drift of their governments
(particularly those in Warsaw and Budapest),
which are negating the values that underpin
and define the UE by putting fundamental prin-
ciples of democracy such as the division of pow-
ers and free expression at risk. Although the on-
going conversion of full-fledged democratic
states into illiberal democracies or majority au-
tocracies along the lines of Vladimir Putin’s Russia
could pose an existential threat to the EU if not
reversed in time, community institutions appear
to be for the most part unprepared to tackle this
problem in a decisive and effective manner.
Despite repeated warnings from the
European Commission, Poland’s governing far-
right Law and Justice Party (directed from the
shadows by parliamentary leader Jaroslaw
Kaczynski) has approved 13 controversial laws
since 2016 affecting the independence of the
country’s judicial system, the most recent of
which, adopted in December 2017, placed the
country’s Supreme Court and National Council
for the Judiciary under the direct political con-
trol of the Polish Parliament, and, by extension,
the country’s ruling party. This legislation, which
has effectively suppressed the judicial independ-
ence and separation of powers essential to any
functioning democracy, together with measures
intended to limit the media’s ability track and to
cover government and parliamentary activity,
have been considered anticonstitutional by the
Polish Supreme Court, qualified as “the politici-
sation of justice” by the Council of Europe’s
Venice Commission and described as constitut-
ing part of a “systematic threat to the rule of
law” by a spokesman for the European Council
in representation of EU institutions.
None of these statements has had the slight-
est effect. Its patience worn thin, on 21
December 2017, the European Commission fi-
nally activated a mechanism contemplated in
Article 7 of the Treaty of the European Union