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POPULISM AND NATIONALISM VERSUS EUROPEANISM
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Merkel is nevertheless likely to remain in power
even if she fails to shine in these elections as the
projected return of the Liberals to the Bundestag
and debut of the AfD in that body substantially
lower the possibility of a red-green-red coalition
between left-wing and green political parties.
The resignation of Italian Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi following the defeat of his refer-
endum on constitutional reform could lead to
early elections in that country this autumn. The
M5S stands a chance of winning despite voter
disaffection provoked by appalling errors on the
part of the M5S mayor of Rome, and one can-
not rule out the possibility of Grillo forming a
government with the support of another fac-
tion, an outcome that would be comparable to
a Le Pen victory in France. Finally, polls in the Czech
Republic indicate that the Czech Social Democratic
party could receive 5 % less of the overall vote in
the upcoming October elections than it did in
2013 (15 % compared to 20 %) and consequent-
ly the status of most-voted party, which would
logically go to the populist ANO 2011.
The horizon is stormy, especially for social
democracy, which has emerged as the greatest
loser of the crisis from a political perspective
and suffered a setback that, as noted previously,
was unfortunately caused to a large degree by
social democratic parties themselves. To this we
must add the populist government in Poland
directed from the side-lines by Jarosław
Kaczynski, which is drifting farther and farther
from democracy and ever closer to authoritari-
anism to the glee of Hungarian prime minister
Viktor Orban and the despair of a European
Union helpless to prevent what constitutes a
clear violation of European values and treaties.
Should socialists fail to revive their core left-
ist political vision, offer citizens a coherent and
viable alternative and regain the confidence of
the middle classes and workers hit hard by the
crisis, Europe will inevitably undergo a dramatic
political transformation. Populist parties will
swell their ranks with voters disenchanted with
the left, citizens will be forced to choose be-
tween right-wing and extreme right-wing can-
didates (as will soon happen in France) and
there will be more European governments simi-
lar to those now in power in Poland and Hungary
inclined to flout the most basic tenets of de-
mocracy. Right-wing neoliberals will take advan-
tage of the rise of the extreme right to consoli-
date their positions and chip away at what
remains of the welfare state. As the American
investor Warren Buffet has observed, “There’s
class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich
class, that’s making war, and we’re winning”.
The European Union in peril
European extreme-right populist parties mani-
fest varying degrees of hostility toward European
integration, which range from advocating with-
drawal from the Union (as UKIP has recently
managed to achieve) to flouting EU norms they
consider inconvenient while enjoying the ad-
vantages membership (as PiS in Poland has fre-
quently done) and calling for their countries to
abandon the euro (a position embraced by
Italy’s Northern League). The EU’s failure to de-
liver balanced and fair solutions to the econom-
ic crisis has made citizens across the continent
question its efficiency. The longstanding con-
sensus between European conservatives, liber-
als and social democrats that has sustained the
impetus of the Union for years, has effectively
blocked the emergence of any credible political
alternatives. This stasis and the overweening
policy role played by the European Council un-
der the thumb of Angela Merkel has led many
to believe that the painful austerity policies