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THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN EUROPE: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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alike, and of parties of the extreme right or the
radical left, are creating serious problems for EU
decision-making, challenging its democratic val-
ues in some cases, hindering attempts to cope
with major challenges such as the refugee crisis,
and on occasion influencing the positions of
moderate, democratic parties.
To govern alone or in partnership?
In the member states of the EU, everybody
knows that it takes two to tango (and some-
times even more!), and this was borne out by
developments during 2015. There are currently
21 coalition governments and only six single-
party administrations, although one of these –
Denmark– is a minority government that needs
to form alliances in order to pass legislation.
Although Spain is the only country in the EU
never to have had a coalition government, and
it remains to be seen how events will play out
following the general election on 20 December
2015, the only possible outcomes would appear
to be a coalition government, some kind of par-
liamentary agreement involving at least two
parties, or fresh elections.
Grand coalitions wield power in several
states, including economically and geographi-
cally central states such as Germany and Aus-
tria, new members like Croatia, and others,
such as, Luxembourg where it has become the
norm. Several countries are ruled by coalitions
between liberals and socialists, leaving the con-
servatives in opposition, while the socialists
have been excluded from power in states where
the radical right has entered government with
the conservatives (Finland) or supported it with-
out taking office (Denmark).
However, even when they have failed to win
the election, the social democrats have opted to
enter government rather than remain in opposi-
tion wherever possible. This was the case in Es-
tonia, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands and Slovenia.
There are also countries in which the social-
ists have formed coalitions following victory at
the polls, such as the Czech Republic and Italy.
One could argue that Italy is, in reality, a grand
coalition, at least partially, as the Democratic
Party there governs in partnership with part of
what was once Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia,
while the remainder of that grouping remains in
opposition.
Finally, Portugal is governed by a socialist ad-
ministration that emerged from an interesting
election in November 2015 in which the con-
servatives actually polled the most votes but
subsequently proved unable to construct a par-
liamentary majority. The three parties of the left
obtained an absolute majority both of the votes
cast and of seats in parliament. The conserva-
tives invited the socialists to join a grand coali-
tion, but the socialists preferred to reach an
agreement with the communists and the far left
under which the socialists would form a govern-
ment on their own.
Curiously, Portugal’s neighbour, Spain, has
found itself in a similar predicament: the PP won
most votes in the December general election
and proposed that the PSOE join it in a grand
coalition, but the PSOE rejected this offer, decid-
ing instead to open negotiations with liberals,
the far left and moderate nationalists.
It is also worth bearing in mind that, following
the European Parliament elections of 2014, the
EU has explicitly been governed by a grand coali-
tion of conservatives, socialists and liberals. Explic-
itly because the President of the Commission,
Jean Claude Juncker, sought the votes of Mem-
bers of the European Parliament on the basis of a
programme negotiated with these political forces