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THE STATE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
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and which is to be implemented by a College of
European Commissioners which draws 95 % of
its members from the ranks of MEPs.
In this respect, the operation of the EU clear-
ly benefits if the governments of its member
states, represented in the European Council,
consist of grand coalitions, coalitions or single
party governments led by parties belonging to
one of the three currents that provide Brussels
with its political leadership. However, this does
not mean that relationships are free of contra-
dictions and conflicts, given that national inter-
ests often play a part in EU decision-making,
which is not influenced solely by broad political
tendencies.
The left-right axis remains a major factor
There were eight general elections in the EU in
2015: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Po-
land, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom.
So far, there have been two more during 2016,
in Ireland and Slovakia.
The left-right axis remains key to determin-
ing majorities and identifying the balance of
power within the European Council, and in
these terms four of the elections were won by
right-wing parties. These were the clear victory
of David Cameron’s Conservative Party in the
United Kingdom; the absolute majority ob-
tained by Poland’s ultra-conservative “Law and
Justice” party; the inclusion as a partner in the
centre-right coalition of the populist “True
Finns” in Finland following the vote of 19 April;
and Denmark, where liberal Lars Rasmussen be-
came Prime Minister with the support of the
populist Danish People’s Party.
In Estonia, last March’s elections returned
the outgoing coalition between the centre-right
and the social democrats to power.
At the other end of the European political
spectrum, two parties shifted to the left: Greece,
where Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, is Prime
Minister; and Portugal, where socialist Antonio
Costa heads a single-party government, but one
that relies on the explicit support of the Left
Bloc and the Communist Party.
If Spain had a left-wing prime minister, the
current left/right balance within the EU would
be significantly altered. Excluding Spain, there
are twelve left-wing or centre-left prime minis-
ters compared to fifteen from the right or cen-
tre-right. Left-wing governments represent 42
% of the EU’s population, compared to 58 %
who are governed by the right. This percentage
would fall to 53 % if Spain were to be governed
by the left. If we include grand coalitions in our
calculations (those involving ministers both from
the left and the right) then the percentages
change. Excluding Spain, countries governed by
a grand coalition account for 33 % of the Euro-
pean population, those governed by the left
represent 36 %, and those ruled by the right are
31 %. If a left-wing government were formed
in Spain, the proportion of the European popu-
lation governed by this current would rise to 42
%, against a figure of only 28 % with conserva-
tive governments. Any change of government
in Spain is thus bound to have a significant im-
pact on the balance of power in Brussels.
In two countries which voted in 2016 –Ire-
land and Slovakia– governments have yet to be
formed, and the process of doing so promises to
be anything but straightforward.
In Ireland, the two parties that had governed
in coalition for the previous five years, the cen-
trist Fine Gael and the Labour Party, fell almost
30 seats short of an absolute majority. Although
Ireland’ GDP has risen faster than any other Eu-
rozone countries, both parties were severely
punished by voters for austerity measures and