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Iraq after ISIS: Shia militancy and Iranian influence
23
this danger no longer exists, Sistani will likely issue a follow-up fatwa asking for the fighters
to lay down their arms or officially join the security forces if the state has the capacity to
absorb and integrate them. Whilst tens of thousands of fighters will respond to this call, it
will also be resisted heavily by those groups that wish to maintain the independence of the
Iraqi state and remain directly linked to Iran.
For Baghdad, this will represent a clear national security threat as the government has
formally placed the paramilitary forces under its hold through the control of its finances
and having the umbrella committee fall under the office of the Prime Minister himself.
However, even if they do acquiesce to the government, those groups will want a larger stake
in the country they would have helped survive. Whatever does happen, the rise of ISIS and
the response to this existential threat will permanently change the political and security
landscape of Iraq.
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