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IRANIAN POLICY TOWARDS POST-SADDAM IRAQ
Mohammad Ali Shabani
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Broader parameters of Iranian interests
I
t is difficult to discuss a state’s influence without discussing the state in question’s
interests. This particularly holds true for discussion of Iran’s regional influence, which
in recent years has suffered from an outsized sectarian reading. In order to grasp Iranian
influence in Iraq, it is necessary to gain an understanding of Iranian interests. Namely,
what does Tehran seek in its western neighbour? Broadly speaking, the answer to this
question can be divided under three parameters: maintaining Iraq’s territorial integrity,
seeking qualified stability and expanding Iran’s economic sphere.
Maintaining Iraq’s territorial integrity
Iranian interest in Iraq’s territorial integrity can be traced to one basic assumption:
beyond federalism, a Pandora’s Box may be opened with potentially dire consequences.
The primary focus of political scientists has overwhelmingly been the future
of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). The prospect of the KRG declaring
independence is widely portrayed as a matter of concern to various regional states,
including Iran, mainly because of the resulting impact on other Kurdish communities
in the region, and also, future dynamics between an independent Kurdistan and an
Arab government in Baghdad. Regional states view the latter with different degrees of
concern because of their differing views of regional equations, but more so, because
of their different experiences with their own Kurdish communities. These experiences,
and resulting attitudes, go both ways: the manner in which Kurdish communities view
central governments diverge depending on the contexts. On a fundamental level, Kurds
1 Iran Pulse Editor at the Middle East-focused website Al-Monitor.