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THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN EUROPE: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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Chart 1
shows, during the period 2007-2014,
changes in the GDP of member states are close-
ly tied to the growth in Euroscepticism during
the worst years of the crisis. In other words,
neutralising distrust of the EU is not just a ques-
tion of words but is, above all, a matter of de-
veloping effective policies to promote growth
and, as a result, employment and equality.
The ghosts of the past return, part II:
populism
Populist discourse –often linked to nationalism,
Euroscepticism or, directly, to anti-Europeanism–
prospered in 2015, despite the fact that main-
stream political parties continued to dominate
governments, parliaments and public opinion in
EU member states. The financial and monetary
crisis, combined with the arrival of refugees, has
given a boost to these movements during 2015
and into 2016.
Populism has taken three broad forms: far-
right, far-left, and ideologically unaffiliated. The
most significant developments in EU member
states have been the following:
– Germany: the refugee crisis has boosted the
growth of populist party “Alternative for
Germany” (AfD), ending Germany’s excep-
tional status as the only state in north-west-
ern Europe where there was no significant
populist anti-immigration movement. In
march this year, the AfD achieved major
breakthroughs in three elections held in re-
gions where it was previously unrepresented:
Baden-Württemberg (15.1 % of the vote),
Rhineland-Palatinate (12.6 % of the vote) and
Saxony-Anhalt (24.4 % of the vote). In the
Source:
developed by authors from ISPI data.
35 %
30 %
25 %
20 %
15 %
10 %
5 %
0 %
-5 %
-10 %
Greece
Spain
Italy
Cyprus
Portugal
Irleland
Poland
France
Germany
Change in GDP (2007-2014)
Change in Euroscepticism (2007-2014)
-30 % -20 % -10 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 %
Euroescepticism and the crisis (2007-2014)